Business & Investments

UAE Petrol Prices Could Rise in February as Global Oil Markets Remain Volatile

Motorists across the UAE may see a potential increase in petrol prices for February 2026, following an upward trend in global crude oil prices in January. The rise comes amid geopolitical tensions and growing domestic demand for fuel, as the number of vehicles on UAE roads continues to climb.

According to market data, Brent crude averaged $63.47 per barrel in January, up from $61.51 in December 2025, reflecting renewed concerns over potential supply disruptions from Iran and Venezuela. The benchmark saw its highest close of $66.52 per barrel during the first three weeks of the month before stabilizing near $65.5 on Tuesday morning.

In the UAE, Super 98, Special 95, and E-Plus 91 petrol were priced at AED 2.53, AED 2.42, and AED 2.34 per litre, respectively, for January 2026. Diesel was set at AED 2.55. While these rates were slightly lower than those of December, the steady rebound in global oil prices could influence the next price adjustment.

Rising Domestic Demand

Fuel consumption in the UAE continues to expand, driven by rapid population growth, infrastructure development, and increased mobility. According to Adnoc Distribution, the country’s largest fuel retailer, total fuel sales reached a record 11.7 billion litres during the first nine months of 2026. The company also added 85 new service stations, expanding its network to 977 outlets nationwide.

Geopolitical Factors Fuel Market Uncertainty

Analysts suggest that ongoing geopolitical risks are influencing crude oil’s upward trajectory. Vijay Valecha, Chief Investment Officer at Century Financial, noted that recent U.S. military deployments in the Middle East have intensified fears of potential supply disruptions.
“The deployment of American naval assets to the region is raising concerns over possible escalation and production instability. This geopolitical risk premium, combined with uncertainty at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), has prompted hedge funds to increase bullish crude positions to their highest level since August,” Valecha said.

Market Oversupply May Limit Sharp Increases

However, Fitch Ratings expects any potential price hikes to remain moderate. In a recent report, it stated that despite geopolitical volatility, global oversupply continues to cap the risk premium.
“Any possible supply disruptions in Iran can be absorbed by an oversupplied market. Potential short-term supply increases from Venezuela are likely to be small, while a material rise in the long term would remain challenging. OPEC’s stance on balancing volume versus value will remain critical in shaping the oil market’s direction,” Fitch noted.

Outlook for February

Fuel prices in the UAE are reviewed monthly by the UAE Fuel Price Committee, which adjusts retail rates based on global oil performance and refining costs. If current trends persist, analysts anticipate a slight increase in petrol prices for February 2026, reflecting the higher average for Brent crude this month.

While the extent of the change remains uncertain, industry observers say any adjustment will likely remain within a narrow range, given the UAE’s balanced approach to domestic fuel pricing.