UAE scientists uncover cause of extreme summer heat in Arabian Gulf

Environment & Sustainability

UAE scientists uncover cause of extreme summer heat in Arabian Gulf

Scientists in the UAE have identified the key climate conditions responsible for extreme summer heat in the Arabian Gulf, a discovery that could help predict dangerous marine heatwaves months in advance and protect vulnerable marine ecosystems.

A new study conducted by the Mubadala ACCESS Center at NYU Abu Dhabi explains why some summers in the Gulf become significantly hotter than others, pushing sea temperatures to levels that can trigger mass coral bleaching and disrupt fisheries. Researchers say the findings could allow authorities to anticipate extreme marine heat conditions two to three months ahead, providing critical time to prepare mitigation and protection measures.

The Arabian Gulf is already recognised as the warmest sea on Earth during summer. While marine species in the region have adapted to high temperatures, unusually hot years can overwhelm even resilient ecosystems. Until now, the underlying drivers of these extreme warming events were not fully understood.

Using decades of observational data alongside advanced ocean modelling, the researchers found that severe marine heatwaves occur when two major wind systems shift simultaneously. During these periods, the region’s northwesterly Shamal winds weaken, while the Indian summer monsoon strengthens. This combination increases atmospheric moisture over the Gulf, trapping heat at the ocean’s surface and causing sea temperatures to rise sharply.

The study also links the hottest Gulf summers to broader global climate patterns. Extreme warming is more likely during La Niña events, when the tropical Pacific Ocean cools, and when the North Atlantic Oscillation enters a weaker phase, altering storm tracks across the Atlantic. When both patterns align, the Arabian Gulf experiences its most intense marine heatwaves.

“Unlike other oceans, where marine heatwaves are often driven by clear skies and intense sunshine, the Gulf’s extreme sea temperatures develop under humid and hazy conditions,” said Zouhair Lachkar, senior scientist at NYU Abu Dhabi and lead author of the study. He added that while El Niño typically drives heatwaves in many parts of the world, it is La Niña that favours extreme warming in the Gulf.

Researchers say the findings could significantly strengthen early-warning systems in the region. Improved forecasting would allow scientists and policymakers to act before damage occurs, helping to safeguard coral reefs, fisheries and coastal communities.

“Our findings have important implications for predicting extreme heat events weeks to months before they occur,” said John Burt, co-director of the Mubadala ACCESS Center and senior author of the study. “This advance notice enables marine managers to monitor and protect vulnerable ecosystems and supports regionally relevant research with global impact.”

As climate change increases the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, the study highlights the importance of local, data-driven forecasting tools in protecting biodiversity and sustaining marine life across the Arabian Gulf.